In our October travel safety forecast, we cover the US elections.
Covid-19, dire economic conditions, violence in the Caucasus and a worsening climate in global diplomacy are also worthy of note.
We live in turbulent times.
Covid cases are on the rise again in many countries which had previously seen a fall in infections so now is evidently not the time to let down our guard.
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Not only are we facing the biggest crisis in the travel sector, potentially ever in history, we are also in a time of sharp global political dangers. Cases of covid-19 are rising again, while economies are being thrashed.
Meanwhile, with the US election only weeks away, the projected results are close. Regardless, whoever wins, the United States is likely to face an increase in civil unrest.
According to our colleagues at A. Kain and Partners LLP, this is the most dangerous period of history for the world since the end of the Cold War.
Jacinda Ardern looks set to win the New Zealand elections. Her performance amid the covid-19 pandemic has been stellar.
Bolivia is currently scheduled to hold elections on the 18th October. They were originally scheduled for May but were delayed amid the pandemic. They may yet be postponed again.
Chile is also due to hold a referendum on the 25th October. The purpose of the poll is to determine whether or not to redraft the constitution. It was first mooted in response to demonstrations in 2019. The date could be postponed amid the pandemic.
The month of October normally starts to see colder, wetter conditions in parts of northern Europe and North America.
Several parts of the Middle East such as around the Persian Gulf remain very hot, but the temperatures usually begin to ease noticeably at this time of year.
Where to go
With covid-19 cases on the rise again and the summer tourist season now over, travel is likely to become restricted again in many parts of the world. This will likely sting the local economies of otherwise popular travel destinations at this time of year.
Latin America, South and South East Asia, East Africa and the wider Indian Ocean are also likely to continue missing the arrival of tourists drawn to the good weather at this time of year.
Standard Weather Changes
The following countries and territories are worthy of mention in our October travel safety forecast because of notable weather changes they normally experience at this time of year:
Cote D’Ivoire: the hot, wet season which began in June normally ends this month.
Cuba: the rainy season which began in May normally ends this month.
DRC: the rainy season which began in April in areas north of the equator normally ends this month.
El Salvador: the rainy season which began in May normally ends this month.
Kosovo: parts of the country can start to experience heavy rain and snowfall from now until December.
Malaysia: the north-east monsoon normally begins this month and lasts until February.
Northern Mariana Islands: the rainy season which began in July normally ends this month.
Sao Tome and Principe: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until May.
South Sudan: the rainy season which began in May normally ends this month.
Sri Lanka: the southwest monsoon, which began in June, normally ends this month.
Tonga: while cyclones can occur all year round they become more likely between now and April.
Zambia: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until April.
Key Dates for the October travel safety forecast
The following dates are significant this month:
Cyprus: Independence Day
Nigeria: Independence Day
Guinea: Republic Day
India: Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday
Germany: Day of German Unity
Honduras: Francisco Morazán’s Birthday
Judaism: Sukkot (first day)
South Korea: National Foundation Day
Lesotho: Independence Day
Mozambique: Day of Peace and Reconciliation
Honduras: Army Day
Portugal: Republic Day
Egypt: Armed Forces Day
Turkmenistan: Day of Commemoration and National Mourning
Peru: Battle of Angamos Day
Ecuador: Independence of Guayaquil Day
Uganda: Independence Day
Kenya: Moi Day
Taiwan: National Day
Colombus Day and Indigenous People’s Day
Equatorial Guinea: Independence Day
United States: Columbus Day / Indigenous People’s Day
Georgia: Day of Svetitskovloba
New Zealand: general elections
Azerbaijan: Independence Day
Bolivia: possible elections
Guatemala: Revolution Day
Kenya: Mashujaa Day
Hungary: Republic Day
Zambia: Independence Day
Possible vote in Chile
Chile: plebiscite on the constitution
Austria: National Day
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Independence Day
Turkmenistan: Independence Day
Czech Republic: Foundation of the Independent Czeochoslovak State Day
Greece and Cyprus: Okhi Day
Birthday of the Prophet Muhammad
Islam: Milad an-Nabi
Turkey: Republic Day
Thank you for staying up to date with our October travel safety forecast.
We hope you have safe travels ahead!