In our October travel safety forecast, we cover the US elections.

Covid-19, dire economic conditions, violence in the Caucasus and a worsening climate in global diplomacy are also worthy of note.

We live in turbulent times.

Covid cases are on the rise again in many countries which had previously seen a fall in infections so now is evidently not the time to let down our guard.

Please register with our site and upload comments on locations that you know. We particularly welcome any updates on the covid situation where you are. The more everyone contributes, the more we will all benefit from one another’s insight.

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Crises

Not only are we facing the biggest crisis in the travel sector, potentially ever in history, we are also in a time of sharp global political dangers. Cases of covid-19 are rising again, while economies are being thrashed.

The escalation in fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan is also causing alarm. Drawing in Russia and Turkey to support the two sides respectively raises the risk of major regional escalation.

Meanwhile, with the US election only weeks away, the projected results are close. Regardless, whoever wins, the United States is likely to face an increase in civil unrest.

According to our colleagues at A. Kain and Partners LLP, this is the most dangerous period of history for the world since the end of the Cold War.

Elections

As well as the US elections in November, polls are being held in October in Bolivia, Chile and New Zealand.

Jacinda Ardern looks set to win the New Zealand elections. Her performance amid the covid-19 pandemic has been stellar.

Bolivia is currently scheduled to hold elections on the 18th October. They were originally scheduled for May but were delayed amid the pandemic. They may yet be postponed again.

Chile is also due to hold a referendum on the 25th October. The purpose of the poll is to determine whether or not to redraft the constitution. It was first mooted in response to demonstrations in 2019. The date could be postponed amid the pandemic.

Weather

The month of October normally starts to see colder, wetter conditions in parts of northern Europe and North America.

Many parts of South Asia such as India and Bangladesh experience a mild, dry and pleasant ‘winter’ from now until March following the end of the monsoon season.

Several parts of the Middle East such as around the Persian Gulf remain very hot, but the temperatures usually begin to ease noticeably at this time of year.

Where to go

With covid-19 cases on the rise again and the summer tourist season now over, travel is likely to become restricted again in many parts of the world. This will likely sting the local economies of otherwise popular travel destinations at this time of year.

The Mediterranean and Middle East (including Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Israel) will feel this keenly.

Latin America, South and South East Asia, East Africa and the wider Indian Ocean are also likely to continue missing the arrival of tourists drawn to the good weather at this time of year.

Standard Weather Changes

The following countries and territories are worthy of mention in our October travel safety forecast because of notable weather changes they normally experience at this time of year:

Cote D’Ivoire: the hot, wet season which began in June normally ends this month.

Cuba: the rainy season which began in May normally ends this month.

DRC: the rainy season which began in April in areas north of the equator normally ends this month.

El Salvador: the rainy season which began in May normally ends this month.

Kosovo: parts of the country can start to experience heavy rain and snowfall from now until December.

Malaysia: the north-east monsoon normally begins this month and lasts until February.

Northern Mariana Islands: the rainy season which began in July normally ends this month.

Sao Tome and Principe: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until May.

South Sudan: the rainy season which began in May normally ends this month.

Sri Lanka: the southwest monsoon, which began in June, normally ends this month.

Tonga: while cyclones can occur all year round they become more likely between now and April.

Zambia: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until April.

Key Dates for the October travel safety forecast

The following dates are significant this month:

1 October
Cyprus: Independence Day
Nigeria: Independence Day

2 October
Guinea: Republic Day
India: Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday

3 October
Germany: Day of German Unity
Honduras: Francisco Morazán’s Birthday
Judaism: Sukkot (first day)
South Korea: National Foundation Day

4 October
Lesotho: Independence Day
Mozambique: Day of Peace and Reconciliation

5 October
Honduras: Army Day
Portugal: Republic Day

6 October
Egypt: Armed Forces Day
Turkmenistan: Day of Commemoration and National Mourning

8 October
Peru: Battle of Angamos Day

9 October
Ecuador: Independence of Guayaquil Day
Uganda: Independence Day

10 October
Kenya: Moi Day
Taiwan: National Day

Colombus Day and Indigenous People’s Day

12 October
Equatorial Guinea: Independence Day
United States: Columbus Day / Indigenous People’s Day

14 October
Georgia: Day of Svetitskovloba

17 October
New Zealand: general elections

18 October
Azerbaijan: Independence Day
Bolivia: possible elections

20 October
Guatemala: Revolution Day
Kenya: Mashujaa Day

23 October
Hungary: Republic Day

24 October
Zambia: Independence Day

Possible vote in Chile

25 October
Chile: plebiscite on the constitution

26 October
Austria: National Day

27 October
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Independence Day
Turkmenistan: Independence Day

28 October
Czech Republic: Foundation of the Independent Czeochoslovak State Day
Greece and Cyprus: Okhi Day

Birthday of the Prophet Muhammad

29 October
Islam: Milad an-Nabi
Turkey: Republic Day

Thank you for staying up to date with our October travel safety forecast.

We hope you have safe travels ahead!

 

October travel safety forecast
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