In our June travel safety forecast we are pleased to announce a new podcast, but we will also examine the ongoing covid-19 pandemic, disrupted politics and weather changes.
Lockdown measures are being eased in some countries but conditions are worsening in several other countries.
For most people, travel remains heavily restricted. For those now free to move, there are still heavy caveats to the ‘freedom’ they have been granted by their governments.
However, it doesn’t matter where you are in the world, this situation will not go away quickly.
We want to know what is happening in your area amid the covid-19 crisis. EVERYWHERE COUNTS! It doesn’t matter where you are in the world, we want to hear from you.
The more everyone contributes, the more we will all benefit from one another’s insight.
Our partners at AKP LLP have produced a new worldwide political risk podcast, Insight from the Edge of the World.
It’s a take on current global affairs from the perspective of the Hebridean islands (off the west coast of Scotland) where the AKP LLP founder is currently on lockdown. From covid-19 to Chinese relations to trouble in America, it’s a comprehensive take, composed amid the tranquillity of the islands.
Covid-19 continues to disrupt the electoral calendar worldwide. The presidential primary elections are also being delayed and disrupted in the United States, with polling taking place on different dates according to state.
However, things are being drastically overshadowed by protests against institutional racism against ethnic minorities, particularly African Americans. Police brutality has been the major catalyst.
The threat of President Trump to deploy the army to try and quell the disquiet will only polarise society further and generate greater animosity.
Civil unrest has resurged in other parts of the world as well. Pro-democracy protestors in Hong Kong face further clampdowns from the pro-Beijing authorities. Despite fears over further covid-19 cases, expect a resumption of public demonstrations and other forms of protest against the authorities.
Demonstrations may also intensify in Middle Eastern and North African countries including Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Libya. Restrictions are gradually being eased amid deep-seated frustration with the respective authorities in each of the countries.
There is ongoing violence in Rakhine state in Myanmar. Here, the military continues to clash with the Arakan Army, with no let-up in sight in the country’s troubled intercommunal tensions.
Countries around the world are struggling to identify exactly how many people have contracted covid-19. Even with the most advanced healthcare systems it is near impossible to document every casualty in the event that the disease has spread uncontrollably.
The United Kingdom may never know the exact figure, for example. In some countries, however, it seems likely that the authorities are deliberately suppressing the true figures, trying to contain panic and even using it as an excuse to lift restrictions too early.
After debt negotiations ended without clear progress, Argentina defaulted on its sovereign debt for a ninth time. However, talks are likely to resume and a deal could yet be reached. Nonetheless, current global conditions do not bode well for stability.
Elsewhere in the world, numerous countries are now technically in a recession, or rapidly heading for one, from Germany to Japan. The impact of covid-19 in the economic arena will be widespread and will likely long outlast the virus itself.
The European Union continues to thrash out the workings of a stimulus package. This is a time of unprecedented action in the organisation. However, it remains to be seen whether or not the bloc will co-operate and find a workable, approved solution, or if it fails to unite and falls apart.
Meanwhile, the deadline for negotiations over Brexit also looms closer. With historical distractions overshadowing the discussions it looks increasingly likely that the United Kingdom will leave the EU without a deal at the end of the year. The alternative is to seek an extension of the transition period. Yet this is something the current government has pledged to avoid.
Seasonal weather changes
Virus or not, mother nature marches on. The month of June is usually a time of significant change in global weather.
For the northern hemisphere, it normally signals the arrival of summer and higher temperatures. In the southern hemisphere, it marks the beginning of winter.
For the Caribbean, it marks the beginning of the hurricane season, bringing an increased risk of damaging and deadly tropical storms which will last until November.
In south Asia, the month usually sees the beginning of the monsoon season, which will last until September or October.
These will bring a range of issues. While they often affect travel, they are nonetheless still likely to affect people who remain in lockdown in all of these regions.
Any related natural disasters will be particularly challenging to address amid the risk of covid-19 infections.
Some economies may be particularly vulnerable if they are hit this year, as many are already suffering acutely with the sudden end of tourist revenue.
Where to go
Normally, popular travel destinations at this time include all of Europe (this is a good time to visit northern, normally colder regions, including Scandinavia and Russia), the wider Mediterranean region, Southeast Asia as well as South and Central America.
The restrictions on travel threaten countries which traditionally generate a significant amount of GDP from tourism. This includes countries such as Mexico, Jamaica, Panama, Morocco, Malta, Croatia, Greece, Lebanon, Hong Kong, Iceland and Cambodia. Lebanon is already facing a major economic crunch. With rolling demonstrations over recent months the outlook is certainly concerning.
Even Thailand, long seen as highly resilient to instability and uncertainty, is having to take major action to try and offset the impact of the greatest disruption to human travel in history.
A government financial stimulus package is being launched, aimed at helping those most at risk, such as those in the informal sector. However, there are questions over the transparency and workability of the plan, so there may be discontent over its implementation.
Otherwise, some countries are gradually opening up to tourists from certain countries, but visitors should proceed with caution.
For now, those of us who are even able to get outside should seek out local destinations. Don’t travel too far. Spend time with who you can, where you can, but adhere to the proper guidelines of social distancing.
Standard Weather Changes
The following countries and territories are worthy of mention in our June travel safety forecast because of notable weather changes they normally experience at this time of year:
Bangladesh: the monsoon season normally begins this month and lasts until October.
Bhutan: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until August.
Congo: the rainy season normally ends this month.
Cote D’Ivoire: the hot and wet season normally begins this month and lasts until October.
Eritrea: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until September.
Ethiopia: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until August.
Gambia: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until November.
Guinea-Bissau: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until November.
Monsoons and typhoons
India: the monsoon normally begins this month and lasts until September.
Japan: from June to December there is a higher risk of typhoon affecting the country.
Liberia: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until September.
Maldives: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until August.
Myanmar: the rainy monsoon season normally begins this month and lasts until September.
Philippines: from June to December there is a higher risk of typhoon affecting the country.
South Korea: from June to November there is a higher risk of typhoon affecting the country.
Sri Lanka: the southwest of the country experiences monsoon from this month until October.
Taiwan: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until August.
United States: while tornadoes can occur all year round, the peak season, which began in March, normally ends this month.
Key Dates for the June travel safety forecast
The following dates are significant this month:
Kenya: Madaraka Day
Italy: Republic Day
Uganda: Martyr’s Day
Denmark: Constitution Day
Seychelles: Liberation Day
South Korea: Korean Memorial Day
Sweden: Swedish National Day
Malta: Sette Giugno
Uganda: National Heroes’ Day
Portugal: Portugal Day
The Feast of Corpus Christi
Christianity: Corpus Christi
Paraguay: Chaco Armistice Day
Philippines: Independence Day
Russia: National Day
Azerbaijan: National Salvation Day
South Africa: Youth Day
Iceland: Independence Day
BlackLivesMatter and Emancipation Day
United States: Emancipation Day
Uruguay: Artigas Birthday
Argentina: National Flag Day
Croatia: Anti-Fascist Struggle Day
Estonia: Victory Day
Croatia: Statehood Day
Mozambique: Independence Day
Slovenia: Statehood Day
Azerbaijan: Armed Forces Day
Madagascar: Independence Day
Ukraine: Constitution Day
Christianity: Feast of St. Peter and St. Paul
Seychelles: Independence Day
DRC: Independence Day
Guatemala: Army Day
Thank you for staying up to date with our June travel safety forecast.
We hope you have safe travels ahead. Otherwise, please stay safe at home!