Find out what to expect around the world this July with the following updates and analysis. You can also register with our site for free and see country-specific analysis as well as travel tips left by other users.

The month marks the height of summer in the northern hemisphere and often heralds a boom in travel. However, the high temperatures also bring a risk of heatwaves in many areas. The rising temperatures also usually bring a higher risk of hurricanes in the Caribbean.

There are also a number of anniversaries, elections, public holidays and festivals to be aware of, while political tensions remain ever-near in a number of hotpot regions including the Middle East, Latin America and East Asia.

Politics and violence

Brazil
The ongoing corruption probe into senior figures in Brazilian politics will likely continue to stoke protests and demonstrations in urban Brazil. However, the events are likely to be concentrated in areas around government buildings and will have a limited impact on tourist areas. Some business districts might be close to the areas of unrest but the impact on day-to-day movements is likely to be minimal if hotspot areas are avoided.

Colombia
Much progress has been made in Colombia in recent years in terms of tackling the domestic terrorist threat, but with the reduction in activity by the FARC group other organisations are still keen to engage in political violence. The ELN and splinter groups continue to engage in low-level attacks, while organised crime groups are attempting to capitalise on the withdrawal of FARC fighters. The country will mark independence day on 20th July when some groups may attempt to conduct attacks in order to make a statement of defiance towards the government, although any incidents are likely to be low level and are more likely to affect military facilities and personnel in parts of the country where travellers do not frequent.

DjiboutiEritrea
Tensions are high on the border, particularly around the coast. Djibouti claims that Eritrean troops tried to occupy the Doumeira area (Ras Doumeira and the Doumeira islands) earlier in June after Qatari peacekeepers withdrew. It is highly unlikely that these troops return while Qatar reviews its foreign policy. In the meantime, be prepared for the possibility of border spats in the area in July. A full conflict is not expected at present as the tense ceasefire tends to favour both countries’ internal policies but occasional clashes might take place.

Note also that many Eritrean nationals living overseas return for trips to the country during July and August, placing a higher demand on hotel facilities.

France
Security measures are likely to be high throughout France ahead of Bastille Day celebrations due to take place on 14th July, a year after a radical Islamist attacker killed 86 people celebrating the day in Nice. Measures will likely be particularly stringent around public crowded areas, although media outlets, government facilities as well as Jewish and Christian religious facilities will also likely be reviewing their security measures.

Gulf Region
Diplomatic relations will remain extremely fraught as Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) members will maintain their pressure on Qatar for its foreign policy choices. The war of words is aimed at pressuring and humiliating the country into compliance but Doha will likely resist as long as possible so as to save face. Conditions are not likely to escalate into violence but travellers should expect a continuation of onward travel restrictions if attempting to go from Qatar to other countries on the Arabian Peninsula. The price of basic goods is also likely to rise.

Iraq
The operation to claim Mosul back from Islamic State is likely to conclude in the coming weeks, but the associated casualty figures are likely to be extreme. There are other factors which will also temper any optimism over the development.

Radical Islamist terrorists will continue to conduct sporadic terrorist attacks around Iraq in the aftermath. Retaliatory attacks against Sunni civilians should also be expected as survivors of the Islamic State regime may want to enact revenge against the community which they feel supported the organisation.

Crime and unexploded ordnance will also remain a major concern in Mosul, while the humanitarian crisis will take months if not years to solve. The area may never truly recover.

Further down the line there are also fears that with the Islamists defeated on the battlefield, other interest groups in northern Iraq, such as rival Kurdish groupings, Shi’ah militias and the official security forces, will start jostling for influence over the oil fields of northern Iraq. A referendum on Kurdish independence is also due to take place later in the year which may prove a focal point for the related tensions and could provide an indication for further disputes and confrontation ahead.

Mongolia
The Naadam festival takes place every year from 11th-13th July. It is the largest festival in the country and includes a three-day series of games including archery, horse racing and wrestling in Ulaanbaatar. A popular tourist attraction, there is nonetheless a slight rise in opportunist petty crime during this time which visitors should be aware of.

Ngorno-Karabakh
Tensions are high between Armenia and Azerbaijan around Ngorno-Karabakh. The day-to-day security environment remains calm but there have been warnings about a possible escalation in military clashes around the disputed territory, with the Lachin corridor deemed to be most at risk.

Papua New Guinea
Elections will continue into the early part of July with an associated risk of localised protests in larger towns and Port Moresby. These will hold the potential for descending into violence but any casualties and property damage will likely be very concentrated. The protesters will likely be disorganised. The best defence will likely be to remain in secure areas where personnel access is controlled.

Philippines
Following the conclusion of Ramadan expect an increase in violence around Marawi city in the south of the country but it will likely have a very limited impact on other parts of the country, particularly tourist resorts and other popular traveller destinations.

Syria
The campaign to defeat Islamic State will take much longer in Syria. Expect more potential clashes between US and Syrian military units, particular in air combat and drone warfare which will make any sort of mediation more difficult to achieve.

RussiaUkraine
An attempted ceasefire failed on 24th June, one of several attempts over the past two years. Continuation of the same tense situation should be expected, with more violent clashes around the battle lines in the Donbass region.

Key Dates Ahead

1 July
Botswana: Sir Seretse Khama Day
British Virgin Islands: Territory Day
Burundi: Independence Day
Canada: Canada Day
China/Hong Kong: anniversary of the Founding of the Communist Party and the return of Hong Kong to Chinese Rule
Ghana: Republic Day
Netherlands Antilles: Emancipation Day
Rwanda: Independence Day
Somalia: Independence Day and Unification Day (referring to Somaliland)
Suriname: Keti Koti/Emancipation Day
Taiwan: Bank Holiday
Thailand: Midyear Day

3 July
Belarus: Independence Day
Caribbean Region: CARICOM Day
Virgin Islands: Danish West Indies Emancipation Day

4 July
Abkhazia: Independence Day
Guyana: CARICOM Day
Rwanda: Liberation Day
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: CARICOM Day
United States: Independence Day

5 July
Algeria: Independence Day
Armenia: Constitution Day
Cape Verde: Independence Day
Cayman Islands: Constitution Day
Rwanda: Peace and Unity Day
Venezuela: Independence Day

6 July
Comoros: Independence Day
Kazakhstan: Day of the Capital
Lithuania: Statehood Day
Malawi: Independence Day

7 July
Kenya: Saba Saba Day commemoration
Solomon Islands: Independence Day
Tanzania: Saba Saba Day
Serbia: Serbian National Day
Zambia: Heroes’ Day

8 July
Zambia: Unity Day

9 July
Argentina: Independence Day
Brazil: Constitutionalist Revolution
Palau: Constitution Day

10 July
Bahamas: Independence Day
Mauritania: Armed Forces Day

11 July
Mongolia: Naadam begins

12 July
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Feast of St. Peter and St. Paul (Petrovdan)
Kiribati: Independence Day
Sao Tome and Principe: Transitional Government Day
United Kingdom (Northern Ireland): Battle of the Boyne Day “Orange Day”

13 July
Kiribati: Independence holiday continues

14 July
France and French Territories: Bastille Day

15 July
Brunei Darussalam: the Sultan of Brunei’s birthday
Timor – Leste: anniversary of Indonesia’s Incorporation of East Timor in 1976

16 July
Chile: Virgen del Carmen Day

17 July
Puerto Rico: Luis Muños Rivera’s Birthday
South Korea: Constitution Day

18 July
Botswana: President’s Holiday
Uruguay: Constitution Day

19 July
Botswana: President’s Holiday
Myanmar: Martyr’s Day
Nicaragua: National Liberation Day

20 July
Colombia: Independence Day

22 July
Swaziland: King Sobhuza II’s Birthday
East Timor: parliamentary elections

23 July
Egypt: Anniversary of the (Nasserist) Revolution
Libya: Revolution Day
Papua New Guinea: Remembrance Day

24 July
Oman: Blessed Renaissance Day
Vanuatu: Children’s Day
Venezuela: Simon Bolivar’s Birthday

25 July
Cuba: National Revolution Day – lasts for three days
Ecuador: Anniversary of the founding of Guayaquil
Puerto Rico: Constitution Day
Tunisia: Republic Day

26 July
Liberia: Independence Day
Maldives: Independence Day

27 July
Maldives: Independence Day
Trinidad And Tobago: anniversary of the 1990 coup attempt

28 July
Peru: Independence Day

29 July
Peru: Independence Day celebrations
Gabon: parliamentary elections

30 July
Morocco: Throne Day/National Day
Vanuatu: Independence Day
Senegal: parliamentary elections
South Sudan: Martyr’s Day
Venezuela: Constitutional Assembly elections

31 July
Spain: Anniversary of Founding of ETA

Monthly Forecast, July 2017
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