Starling November Forecast

Please find below a travel safety calendar for the upcoming month.

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The latest

Controversial elections, changing weather and the US Thanksgiving holiday could all affect your travel in the coming month. While hurricane season is drawing to a close in the Caribbean, conditions are turning decidedly colder in northern Europe. Politics are also heating up in a variety of countries ranging from Brazil to Madagascar and Ukraine.

Contentious politics

The United States holds midterm elections on the 6th November. The polls could see the Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives, which could create several difficulties for President Trump. Protests against the recent election of Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro could also take place, while a climate of animosity towards certain groups (such as migrants and the LGBTQ+ community) may also worsen.

Criticised municipal elections are due to be held in rebel-held Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine on the 11th November. There will be the potential for flareups along the frontlines between Kiev- and rebel-controlled territories in the region. There may be anti-Russian protests in parts of the country controlled by Kiev both around the election as well as around the 21st November, when the country marks Dignity and Freedom Day (commemorating the anniversary of the pro-EU demonstrations in 2014).

Fiji and Madagascar will experience a higher risk of cyclones from now until April, but both countries, which have also experienced coups in their recent histories, will also go to the polls this month. Madagascar could see unrest surrounding its presidential elections on the 7th November, particularly related to rallies in city centres such as Antananarivo.

The potential for unrest never feels far in Fiji, which holds parliamentary elections on the 14th November, but outright unrest is not expected. A win by former coup leader Frank Bainimarama will at least mark a more democratic endorsement of his position than in the past, but inter-communal tensions and the country’s wealth gap will remain a long way from being solved. As such, stability cannot yet be guaranteed.

Thanksgiving considerations

The coming month will also see the US mark Thanksgiving. Taking place on the 28th, expect busier than normal travel around the country this weekend. The period is also associated with the hyper-commercial Black Friday and Cyber Monday events. These may impact any shopping plans you have during this time. Travellers should also bear in mind that this is a popular time of year for cyber-attacks against large multinational firms, which can compromise data and bring down websites, including ones you might normally rely on for travel, such as airline booking pages. Try to be prepared!

Seasonal weather changes

The month of November normally sees numerous weather changes in many parts of the world. It sees the much-welcome end to the hurricane season in the Caribbean region. It also normally marks the beginning of the ski season in the Alps. In busy destinations in the Persian Gulf such as Dubai the weather is normally at its most pleasant from now until March.

Jordan, especially the west of the country, usually experiences rainier weather from now until April. After the recent disaster in which flash flooding washed away a school minibus, killing several people, it is worth bearing in mind that even in normally safe countries with pleasant climates, accidents can still happen.

Otherwise, popular travel destinations at this time of year include islands off the west coast of Africa (such as the Canary Islands, Madeira and Cape Verde), North America, Latin America, the Caribbean, South and South East Asia, the Middle East as well as Australia and New Zealand.

The following countries and territories also mark notable weather changes this month:

American Samoa: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until April.
Angola: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until April.
Belize: the rainy season, which began in May, normally ends this month.
Burundi: the country’s season rainy season, which began in September, normally ends this month.
Cambodia: the monsoon season, which began in May, normally ends towards the end of this month.
China: the typhoon season, which began in May around the country’s southern and eastern coasts, normally ends, or at least eases during November.
Comoros: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until May.
Costa Rica: the rainy season, which began in May, normally ends this month.
DRC: the rainy season normally begins in areas south of the equator this month and lasts until March.
Fiji: there is a risk of occasional cyclones from now until April.
Gambia: the rainy season, which began in June, normally ends this month.
Guinea-Bissau: the rainy season, which began in June, normally ends this month.
Guyana: the country’s season rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until January.
Jordan: the west of the country experiences a rainier time than normal between now and April.
Kenya: parts of the country normally experience a short rainy period during November.
Kiribati: while typhoons can occur here at any time of year, there is an elevated risk from now until April.
Laos: the rainy season, which began in May, normally ends this month.
Madagascar: there is a greater risk of cyclones between now and April.
Malawi: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until May.
Marshall Islands: the rainy season which began in May, normally ends this month.
Mauritius: while cyclones are infrequent overall, there is a greater risk of them between now and May (particularly between mid-December and March).
Mayotte: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until May.
Micronesia: while cyclones can occur here at any time of year, the period of elevated risk which began in July, normally ends this month.
Mozambique: there is normally a greater risk of cyclones from now until April.
Nauru: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until February.
Palau: the rainy season which began in May normally ends this month.
Pitcairn Islands: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until March.
Reunion: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until April.
Rwanda: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until April.
Samoa: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until April.
Senegal: the rainy season, which began in May, normally ends this month.
Seychelles: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until January.
Solomon Islands: there is normally a greater risk of cyclones from now until May.
South Korea: the risk of typhoons normally reduces this month after being elevated since June.
Thailand: the northeast monsoon normally begins this month and lasts until mid-March.
Tuvalu: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until March.
Vanuatu: there is a greater risk of cyclones from now until March.
Wallis and Futuna: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until April.
Zimbabwe: the rainy season normally begins this month and lasts until March.

Key Dates

1 November
Algeria: Anniversary of the Revolution Day
Antigua & Barbuda: Independence Day
Christianity: All Souls Day

3 November
Ecuador: Independence of Cuenca Day
Maldives: Victory Day
Mexico: Day of the Dead
Panama: Separation Day

4 November
New Caledonia: independence referendum (from France)
Panama: Flag Day
Russia: People’s Unity Day

5 November
Dominican Republic: Constitution Day
Panama: Colon Day
United Kingdom: Guy Fawkes Day

6 November
Hinduism: Divali
Morocco: Anniversary of the Green March
United States: midterm elections

7 November
Madagascar: presidential elections

9 November
Azerbaijan: Flag Fay
Cambodia: Independence Day

10 November
Panama: Los Santos Uprising Day

11 November
Poland: Independence Day
Ukraine: controversial elections due to be held in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
Worldwide: Remembrance/Armistice Day

14 November
Fiji: parliamentary elections

15 November
Brazil: Republic Day

17 November
Czech Republic: Struggle for Freedom and Democracy Day
Slovakia: Struggle for Freedom and Democracy Day

18 November
Guinea-Bissau: parliamentary elections – now postponed until December
Latvia: National Day Holiday
Morocco: Independence Day
Oman: National Day

19 November
Islam: Birthday of the Prophet Mohammed (date and observation may vary according to country)
Monaco: HSH the Sovereign Prince’s Day
Oman: Sultan’s Birthday
Puerto Rico: Discovery Day

20 November
Brazil: Day of Black Consciousness

21 November
Ukraine: Dignity and Freedom Day

22 November
Lebanon: Independence Day

23 November
Georgia: St. George’s Day
Worldwide: Black Friday

25 November
Suriname: Independence Day

26 November
Mongolia: National Day
Worldwide: Cyber Monday

28 November
Mauritania: Independence Day
Panama: Independence Day

30 November
Barbados: Independence Day
Philippines: Bonifacio Day
Yemen: Independence Day

We hope you have safe travels ahead!